Archive for December, 2008 Page 2 of 2



8 really, really scary predictions

CNN Money – December 12, 2008


Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of the market’s sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is frightening.


Nouriel Roubini Known as Dr. Doom, the NYU economics professor saw the mortgage-related meltdown coming.

We are in the middle of a very severe recession that’s going to continue through all of 2009 – the worst U.S. recession in the past 50 years. It’s the bursting of a huge leveraged-up credit bubble. There’s no going back, and there is no bottom to it. It was excessive in everything from subprime to prime, from credit cards to student loans, from corporate bonds to muni bonds. You name it. And it’s all reversing right now in a very, very massive way. At this point it’s not just a U.S. recession. All of the advanced economies are at the beginning of a hard landing. And emerging markets, beginning with China, are in a severe slowdown. So we’re having a global recession and it’s becoming worse.

Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak – with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% – that it’s going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010.

For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It’s better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It’ll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I’ll be right this year too.

 


Bill Gross

The founder of bond giant Pimco warned of a subprime contagion back in July 2007.

While 2008 will probably be best known as the year that global stock markets had their values cut in half, it was really much, much more. It was a year in which every major asset class – stocks, real estate, commodities, even high-yield bonds – suffered significant double-digit percentage losses, resulting in the destruction of over $30 trillion of paper wealth. To blame this on subprime mortgages alone would be to dismiss an era of leveraging that encompassed derivative structures of all types, embodying a belief that economic growth was always and everywhere a certainty and that asset prices never go down. As 2008 nears its conclusion, we as an investor nation have been forced to face a new reality. Wall Street and Main Street are fearful that a recession may be replaced by a near depression.

The outcome essentially depends on the ability of the Obama administration to rejuvenate capitalism’s “animal spirits” by substituting the benevolent fist of government for the now invisible hand of Adam Smith. Federal spending and guarantees in the trillions of dollars will be required to fill the gap created by the deleveraging of private balance sheets. In turn, lenders and investors alike must begin to assume risk as opposed to stuffing money in modern-day investment mattresses. The process will take time. Twelve months of the Obama Nation will not be sufficient to heal the damage of a half-century’s excessive leverage. The downsizing of private risk positions – replaced by government credit – will also result in reduced profit margins and a slower rate of earnings growth after the bottom is reached.

Investors need to recognize these titanic shifts in market and public policies and be content with single-digit returns in future years. Perhaps the most lucrative pockets of value are in high-quality corporate bonds and preferred stocks of banks and financial institutions that have partnered with the government in programs such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). While their profitability may be restricted, their ability to pay interest and preferred dividends should be unhampered. Above all, stick to high-quality companies and asset classes. The road to recovery will be treacherous.

 

Robert Shiller

The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles.

We don’t currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today’s environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven’t seen since then. First of all, there’s the magnitude of the stock market’s move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we’ve had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we’ve seen 0% interest rates. We’ve actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn’t happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn’t happened since.

And the list goes on: Our numbers don’t go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it’s a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression.

I’m optimistic that we’ll do better this time, but I’m worried that we’re vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I’m worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that’s difficult to restore. No matter what we do, we’re trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we’re back again. That’s a little hard to manage.

In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It’s a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that’s the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there’s a real chance it will go up a lot. But that’s very risky. It could easily fall by half again.


 

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A 73-Year-Old Gives Basketball a Second Shot

The New York Times – December 9, 2008


JACKSON, Tenn. — Before Sunday’s basketball game, Coach Yogi Woods gathered the junior varsity at Lambuth University. Watch out for 73 on the other team, he said. He did not mean the player’s number. He meant his age.


The visitors, Roane State Community College, had a septuagenarian guard, Ken Mink, college basketball’s oldest player, who has started a second career after his first ended a half century ago with a mysterious shaving-cream incident.


If the 6-foot Mink was good enough to play, he was good enough to be guarded, Woods told the Lambuth players. Then he turned to the freshman Kendrick Coleman and said: “If he goes in for a layup, don’t let him have it. If he scores on you, we will never let you forget it.”


This mixture of curiosity and macho dread has greeted Mink all season at colleges throughout Tennessee. After all, how do you defend a guy whose peers are generally pumping iron to supplement their blood levels, not to build their muscles? On Nov. 3, the junior-varsity coach at King College told one of the Roane players, whom he had coached in high school, “If the old guy scores, we’re walking home.”


Late in that game, Mink entered and found himself open in the corner. He gave a pump fake, and the defender ended up draped over him like raccoon coat. Calmly, he hit both free throws. The Hack-a-Mink strategy had failed.


“I thought some teams would play along, humor him,” said Randy Nesbit, the coach of Roane State, located in Harriman, Tenn. “No, they’re not like the Washington Generals. They’re like sharks sensing blood.”


At home games, Mink has been a crowd favorite. Attendance, usually about 100 per game, has on occasion swelled to 400. Mink’s wife, Emilia, 68, wore a retro cheerleader outfit to the season opener, complete with saddle shoes and a poodle skirt. She held up a sign that said, “Ken Can, He’s Our Medicare Man.”


No one has been happier than the guy who runs the Roane concession stand.


“He even put a new item on the menu, polish sausage with peppers and onions,” Nesbit said. “It was just plain hotdogs before.”


For a guy Mink’s age, two-a-days are a likely reference to multivitamins, not double practices. But while shooting around in a neighbor’s driveway in the summer of 2007, he realized he still had his shooting stroke. So he sent e-mail messages to eight tiny colleges near his home in Knoxville, Tenn. Perhaps a small school could use a guy with an old-school push shot.


“You do realize you’re 72?” Emilia Mink asked her husband. “Do you think you can convince someone you’re not?”


Nesbit, the Roane coach, grew intrigued. A former point guard and coach at The Citadel, he kept himself in terrific shape at 50. He was curious about the possibilities of athletic performance at an age when Gatorade has been replaced as the sports drink of choice by Metamucil. Still, he wanted to meet Mink before offering him a spot on the team.


“I think he wanted to make sure Ken wasn’t out on a weekend pass,” Emilia Mink said.


Ken Mink told Nesbit a story of unfinished business: he had played at Lees College in Jackson, Ky., only to be expelled from the then-Presbyterian school in 1956 as his sophomore season began. His crime? Mink said he was accused of soaping the coach’s office with shaving cream, slathering the lights and even the coach’s shoes.


He denied it. “I don’t even shave,” he said he told the university president. Apparently, his alibi was not as smooth as his baby face.


“It’s been eating at him all these years,” Emilia Mink said. “Ken likes to finish what he started.”


Marcus Mullins, a student manager on that Lees team, said he remembered Mink as a “good, hard-nosed player, a big raw-boned kid.” (“I used to be 6-2,” Mink said.) While he was not certain of the facts, Mullins said, the university president at the time was a stern man who did not tolerate prankish misbehavior.


“I know there was an incident, and suddenly he was gone,” Mullins said of Mink. “I’m sure he’s telling the truth.”


Mink said he joined the Air Force in November 1956 and played regularly in military tournaments for four years. He then went on to a career as a newspaper editor, continuing to play basketball in recreation leagues. Since retiring in 1999, he and his wife said, Mink has kept active by playing golf, walking, hiking, skiing, even hang gliding. He has published a book, “So, You Want Your Kid to be a Sports Superstar,” and along with his wife, edits an online travel magazine.


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More Seniors Consider Reverse Mortgages to Finance Retirement

US News & World Report – December 11, 2008


Most seniors don’t use their home equity to finance retirement. But it is a back up plan if catastrophic expenses strike. And for some seniors that time is now.


Seniors took out 112,100 Home Equity Conversion Mortgages, a government-backed reverse mortgage, in fiscal year 2008, which ended September 30, up from 107,558 in 2007, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.


Even more seniors struggling to pay their bills may consider reverse mortgages next year. A survey of 800 age 65 and older homeowners released this week found that one quarter are either borrowing against their home or trying to sell it in order to generate income to survive the economic crisis, Crestwood Associates and Golden Gateway Financial found. The Oakland, Calif.-based Golden Gateway Financial also reports a 200 percent increase in calls to its reverse mortgage help center involving senior citizens facing foreclosure in the past three months.


New rules went into affect in November that make reverse mortgages a better deal for consumers. Older homeowners can now borrow up to $417,000 with federally insured reverse mortgages. And the fees that lenders can charge were lowered to origination fees of 2 percent on the initial $200,000 of the home’s value (lesser of the home value or county lending limit) and 1 percent on the balance thereafter, with a cap of $6,000.


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UnitedHealth to Insure the Right to Insurance

The New York Times – December 2, 2008


For these economically uncertain times, the UnitedHealth Group has a “first of its kind” product: the right to buy an individual health policy at some point in the future even if you become sick.


Called UnitedHealth Continuity, the product is not actual medical insurance, but is aimed at people who may have insurance now but are worried they may lose it — and may not be able to obtain replacement insurance on their own. They may expect to retire early, for example, before they qualify for Medicare. Or they are worried about the possibility of losing their job and their health coverage.


People who are already sick will generally not be eligible for the new product. Those who do pass a medical review, will pay 20 percent each month of the current premium on an individual policy to reserve the right to be insured under the plan at some point in the future.


“What this product is designed to do, for a very modest premium, is to essentially protect your insurability for the future,” said Richard A. Collins, the president of UnitedHealth’s individual insurance unit, who says he is the first policy holder. His monthly fee is $50.


Some health policy experts question whether UnitedHealth Continuity is a good way for consumers to spend their money. They acknowledge that people who are forced to buy insurance on their own face a daunting task. If they are not healthy, such people may find any available coverage too expensive. And most states let insurers refuse to sell new individual policies to anyone with a pre-existing medical condition.


But if changes to the health insurance system do occur under the Obama administration, they say, UnitedHealth’s new product may become obsolete.


“As an individual, you’re betting against health reform,” said Peter V. Lee, the executive director of national health policy for the Pacific Business Group on Health, a California group of employers who provide health coverage for their workers.


Mr. Lee notes that there is serious talk in Washington of having private insurers agree to offer individual coverage to anyone, regardless of their health status. People who choose to pay for the UnitedHealth guarantee could find that the insurance industry will eventually be providing the same thing free.


“It’s an attempt to have a market solution to a market failure,” Mr. Lee said.


Mr. Collins says he is unconcerned about the possibility of health reform, given the uncertainties surrounding any government efforts. “Until something happens, this is a really good tool,” he said. UnitedHealth, which announced the UnitedHealth Continuity product Tuesday at an investors’ conference in New York, plans to begin promoting it in coming weeks.


It is initially available in 25 of the 40 states where UnitedHealth currently sells individual insurance, which do not include New York and New Jersey. The company is applying to sell it in the other 15 states, including Connecticut, where it now sells to individuals. The monthly fees for reserving the right to UnitedHealth’s insurance will vary, depending on people’s age and sex, where they live and how generous a coverage plan they select.


A 50-year-old male in Columbus, Ohio, who planned to eventually take an individual policy in which he would be obliged to pay the first $3,500 in medical bills would pay $32 a month for the right to eventually get that coverage — or 20 percent of a policy that now costs $159 a month.


But it is uncertain exactly how he much he could end up paying for the guarantee, or for the medical coverage itself in the future. The premiums, and the monthly fees, are likely to increase over time.


And people attracted to the new product could eventually develop costly medical ailments, experts say, so enrollees might eventually have to pay higher premiums than people able to join plans open only to the healthy. But UnitedHealth says that the upfront monthly fees it collects could help defray some of those higher medical expenses down the road, if they do occur.


People who lose their employer-provided coverage do have other options. Under the federal Cobra law, they can continue their employer-based coverage for a time after losing or leaving their jobs. And some states have insurance programs available even for those who are at risk of incurring high medical bills.


Private insurers are increasingly interested in coming up with new plans that offer coverage even to those individuals with pre-existing conditions, said Bob Vineyard, an insurance broker in Atlanta. He said he expected such plans to be introduced next year.


There are people for whom the new UnitedHealth Continuity product will make sense, Mr. Vineyard said, like someone who expects to work on contract for employers that offer health benefits but who anticipates gaps in that coverage.


But Mr. Vineyard said he did not expect the Continuity plan to have widespread appeal. Many people, he said, especially those who are already struggling in the current economy, may not want to spend the money for the coverage. “I think it’s got very, very limited application,” he said.


Some financial planners are also lukewarm to the idea of spending extra money for a guarantee. Neil Brown, a financial planner for Burkett Financial Services in West Columbia, S.C., compared such a purchase to sleeping with a life preserver for fear of drowning. Some advocates for changing the health insurance system say that rather than expecting individuals to spend hundreds of dollars a year for a guarantee they may not need, the government should do more to make sure everyone has access to coverage.


“This product is taking advantage of the lack of sensible health reform that could easily solve this problem,” said Ron Pollack, the executive director of Families USA, a consumer advocacy group in Washington.


But Mr. Collins of UnitedHealth argues that Continuity is a way for consumers to make sure they can obtain medical insurance that may be better than anything the government comes up with.


“I think it’s a terrific hedge,” he said.



This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:


Correction: December 5, 2008
Because of an editing error, an article on Wednesday about an offer by UnitedHealth Group to guarantee to some customers the right to buy an individual health policy in the future regardless of their health status incorrectly included New Jersey and New York, in some copies, among the states in which the offer is available or could be made available. Because UnitedHealth does not sell individual policies in either state, it will not make the offer.


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Reverse mortgages a lifeline for seniors

The Union Tribune – November 30, 2008


Seniors traditionally have used reverse mortgages to maintain their standard of living in retirement by tapping into their home equity, but older homeowners increasingly are using the loans to avoid sliding into foreclosure.


Rather than making mortgage payments, reverse borrowers typically get cash back, allowing debt to grow until the house is sold or the homeowner dies. Now lenders and senior advocates across the country see older homeowners using such loans as a lifeline.

While analysts are happy that these seniors can avoid foreclosure, some find it disturbing that the elderly must rely on creative lending to keep a roof over their heads. Not long ago, it was a common goal for Americans to own their homes free and clear in retirement and hand them down to their heirs.

Although seniors are more debt-averse than baby boomers and Gen-Xers, many with adjustable-rate loans are caught in the mortgage-market meltdown that has sent foreclosure rates soaring in formerly hot housing markets such as San Diego County.


With seniors often living on fixed incomes, rising mortgage payments are weakening their spending power just as their property values and stock-market holdings plummet.


“It is clear we are getting more calls from people who are facing foreclosure and are looking at reverse mortgages as part of the solution,” said Bronwyn Belling, a reverse-mortgage specialist for AARP, an advocacy group for people ages 50 and older. “If the numbers work, if you can pay off this bad mortgage that you have, sometimes it can be a real lifesaver.”

During the real estate boom – in which home prices in San Diego County doubled between 2000 and 2005 – many seniors refinanced their fixed-rate mortgages with risky, adjustable-rate loans. When low, introductory interest rates adjusted upward after two or three years, they began to miss mortgage payments.

At Oakland-based Golden Gateway Financial, the percentage of reverse-mortgage inquiries that involve foreclosures has grown from 25 percent to 40 percent in recent months. A recent study by AARP’s Public Policy Institute found that people 50 and older represent about 28 percent of all home-mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures.

It may not be what they were designed for, but reverse mortgages seem tailor-made for many seniors who are defaulting on their home loans, reverse-mortgage brokers say.

Reverse loans sometimes are called the mirror image of traditional mortgages. With typical “forward” loans, homeowners use their income to repay debt, creating home equity over time. With a reverse loan, homeowners are taking the equity out in cash so that debt gradually increases. After the loan is repaid, any remaining equity goes to the homeowners or their heirs.


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Credit-card industry may cut $2 trillion lines: analyst

Yahoo Finance – December 1, 2008


The U.S. credit-card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said.The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted.


“In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form of credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent.”

Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BACNews), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:CNews) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPMNews) represent over half of the estimated U.S. card outstandings as of September 30, and each company has discussed reducing card exposure or slowing growth, Whitney said.

Closing millions of accounts, cutting credit lines and raising interest rates are just some of the moves credit card issuers are using to try to inoculate themselves from a tsunami of expected consumer defaults.

A consolidated U.S. lending market that is pulling back on credit is also posing a risk to the overall consumer liquidity, Whitney said.

Mortgages and credit cards are now dominated by five players who are all pulling back liquidity, making reductions in consumer liquidity seem unavoidable, she said.

“We are now beginning to see evidence of broad-based declines in overall consumer liquidity.”

“Already, we have witnessed the entire mortgage market hit a wall, and we believe it will, for the first time ever, show actual shrinkage over the next few months,” she wrote.

The credit card market will be 18 months behind the mortgage market and will begin to shrink by mid-2010, Whitney said.

Whitney also expects home prices to continue falling another 20 percent hurt by lower liquidity. They are down 23 percent from their peak, she said.

“In a country that offers hundreds of cereal and soda pop choices, the banking industry has become one that offers very few choices,” Whitney wrote in a note dated November 30.

She also said credit lines to consumers through home equity and credit cards had been cut back from the second-quarter levels.

“Pulling credit when job losses are increasing by over 50 percent year-over-year in most key states is a dangerous and unprecedented combination, in our view,” the analyst said.

Most of the solutions to the situation involve government intervention, and all of them require more dilutive capital to existing lenders, she said.

“Accordingly, we continue to be cautious on our outlook on US banks.”

SUGGESTIONS

In a column in the Financial Times, Whitney suggested four adoptable changes to make a difference.

The first would be to re-regionalize lending, which has gone from “knowing your customer” or local lending, to relying on what have proven to be unreliable FICO credit scores and centralized underwriting, due to the nationwide consolidation since the early 1990s, she wrote in the column.

Expanding the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp’s guarantee for bank debt will also help as the banks need to know they can access reasonably priced credit for an extended period to continue to extend new credit lines, she wrote in the column.

Whitney also advised delaying the introduction of new accounting rules, which would bring off-balance-sheet assets back on balance sheet, until 2011 or 2012, as the primary assets that will come back are credit card loans.

Whitney suggested amending the proposal on Unfair and Deceptive Lending Practices that is set to be adopted in 2010, saying restricting lenders’ ability to reprice an unsecured loan will cause them to stop lending or to lend less.


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The End of Wall Street’s Boom

Portfolio - December 2008 issue


To this day, the willingness of a Wall Street investment bank to pay me hundreds of thousands of dollars to dispense investment advice to grownups remains a mystery to me. I was 24 years old, with no experience of, or particular interest in, guessing which stocks and bonds would rise and which would fall. The essential function of Wall Street is to allocate capital—to decide who should get it and who should not. Believe me when I tell you that I hadn’t the first clue.
I’d never taken an accounting course, never run a business, never even had savings of my own to manage. I stumbled into a job at Salomon Brothers in 1985 and stumbled out much richer three years later, and even though I wrote a book about the experience, the whole thing still strikes me as preposterous—which is one of the reasons the money was so easy to walk away from. I figured the situation was unsustainable. Sooner rather than later, someone was going to identify me, along with a lot of people more or less like me, as a fraud. Sooner rather than later, there would come a Great Reckoning when Wall Street would wake up and hundreds if not thousands of young people like me, who had no business making huge bets with other people’s money, would be expelled from finance.

When I sat down to write my account of the experience in 1989—Liar’s Poker, it was called—it was in the spirit of a young man who thought he was getting out while the getting was good. I was merely scribbling down a message on my way out and stuffing it into a bottle for those who would pass through these parts in the far distant future.

Unless some insider got all of this down on paper, I figured, no future human would believe that it happened.

I thought I was writing a period piece about the 1980s in America. Not for a moment did I suspect that the financial 1980s would last two full decades longer or that the difference in degree between Wall Street and ordinary life would swell into a difference in kind. I expected readers of the future to be outraged that back in 1986, the C.E.O. of Salomon Brothers, John Gutfreund, was paid $3.1 million; I expected them to gape in horror when I reported that one of our traders, Howie Rubin, had moved to Merrill Lynch, where he lost $250 million; I assumed they’d be shocked to learn that a Wall Street C.E.O. had only the vaguest idea of the risks his traders were running. What I didn’t expect was that any future reader would look on my experience and say, “How quaint.”

I had no great agenda, apart from telling what I took to be a remarkable tale, but if you got a few drinks in me and then asked what effect I thought my book would have on the world, I might have said something like, “I hope that college students trying to figure out what to do with their lives will read it and decide that it’s silly to phony it up and abandon their passions to become financiers.” I hoped that some bright kid at, say, Ohio State University who really wanted to be an oceanographer would read my book, spurn the offer from Morgan Stanley, and set out to sea.

Somehow that message failed to come across. Six months after Liar’s Poker was published, I was knee-deep in letters from students at Ohio State who wanted to know if I had any other secrets to share about Wall Street. They’d read my book as a how-to manual.

In the two decades since then, I had been waiting for the end of Wall Street. The outrageous bonuses, the slender returns to shareholders, the never-ending scandals, the bursting of the internet bubble, the crisis following the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management: Over and over again, the big Wall Street investment banks would be, in some narrow way, discredited. Yet they just kept on growing, along with the sums of money that they doled out to 26-year-olds to perform tasks of no obvious social utility. The rebellion by American youth against the money culture never happened. Why bother to overturn your parents’ world when you can buy it, slice it up into tranches, and sell off the pieces?


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