Archive for February, 2009

Rick Santelli hits a nerve and people are lining up for their bailout


In case you haven’t seen it here’s the Chicago Tea Party video by Rick Santelli.

I live in a pretty wealthy area full of nice houses where the median price is around $1M, which to date has been pretty insulated from the housing price downturn.

So it was more than a little surprising to hear that some people in our area are lining up to get a bailout on their loans – some of which are Negative Amortization  Interest Only loans.  Whether or not they’ll be successful is questionable since the Refinance option is only for Fannie and Freddie owned conforming mortgages – however the Loan Modification component looks like it may help anyone.  We have heard stories of people in this area getting their Jumbo(> $729K loans) written down to 3-4% for 30 years and in some cases principle reductions.  Here’s the executive summary for the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan.

Most Americans are current on their mortgages and are paying their debts – many of them have taken big hits to their retirement savings account and other investments.   I understand the idea that you want to prevent the blight of foreclosed houses in areas where there are no buyers.  However in towns like ours and many others that are attractive to people – there are plenty of buyers out there – many of whom have been renting due to the recent housing bubble.  By subsidizing people who bought houses they can’t afford – we are perpetuating artificially high housing prices and rewarding poor decision making and supporting the heads I win / tails you lose philosophy that promulgated excessive risk taking by Wall Street and Sub Prime borrowers.  It’s the same problem – people saw no downside and if we use tax payer dollars to pay down million dollar mortgages – we are just continuing the problem.

If we allow markets to hit and clear at their natural prices – then we’ll create sustainable communities and healthy markets.  If we do otherwise we create all kinds of incentive problems and turn everyone into a welfare seeker that is focused on how to get their bailout vs.  how to contribute constructively to society.  Some people may “lose” their homes (which in many cases they don’t have equity in), but people need somewhere to live so investors will buy the houses and then rent them back out for a profit, which brings private capital back into the markets – so people shouldn’t be homeless they just won’t “own” taxpayer subsidized houses.

What do you think?

U.S. and UK on brink of debt disaster ?

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2009/01/20/us-and-uk-on-brink-of-debt-disaster/

This is along the lines of the Barron’s interview. Private indebtedness increased 300% faster than GDP from 1970 on. Total public and private sector debt is over 355% of GDP. This debt cannot be serviced out of current cash flow; we either need to restructure the debt on a massive level (bankruptcies, refinancing of short term to long term debt) or inflate so nominal GDP increases fast enough to service existing debt.

Still, given the commodities induced inflation scare in the middle of ‘08, the path of inflation might not be a given or a free lunch either. High inflation would probably squeeze margins for companies in the face of weak demand and increase the amount of money needed for living expenses, leaving less for debt servicing by consumers.

I imagine the Fed really is trying to walk a fine line between deflation and inflation. Either course would wreck the economy for years to come. However, the Fed will feel real pressure from congress. What congress wants is another matter altogether. Treasury and the administration I think understands that you can’t keep gorging banks on loans to get it out of this mess. That’s why the Geithner TARP revamp didn’t have specific requirements for increased bank lending from government money. But they’re hesitant to take decisive action on this. People know some of the largest banks are insolvent but we’re still playing the Fannie and Freddie game of last summer with them. Congress of course wants increased lending and wants Fannie and Freddie and FHA to swallow or guarantee every defaulting loan out there and for the Fed to drive mortgage rates down to 0. The administration also had to reign in their own party in the overreaching salary caps put into the economic stimulus bill.

The question is not just economic anymore, but also political so I don’t know if massive private bankrupcties will be tolerated well either. I think I heard something like 2000 economists signed a letter against Smoot-Hawley during the great depression but that peice of protectionism went through anyway.

What’s your vote – deflation or inflation or do we get a series of bankruptcies and write downs first?

Courtesy of Yi




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