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The (Potential) Pitfalls of Social Security

Social Security MarchIn his list of the Ten WorstGotchasof the Social Security system, Paul Solman informs us that there are 2,728 rules in the Social Security Handbook, buttressed in turn by tens of thousands of additional explanations in something called the Program Operating Manual System.  As one might expect from any system that complicated, there are a number of rules that make little sense externally, but nonetheless can dramatically affect how much money you can expect from Social Security when you retire.

Granted, it’s probably of no surprise to anyone that Social Security is a complicated system.  But particularly for those intending on claiming spousal benefits, some of these rules can seem almost perverse.  One such rule relates to the common tactic among married couples of having one spouse claim full retirement benefits, and the other spousal benefits, until the second spouse reaches age 70 (and begins collecting their own benefits outright).  The trick here is that only one spouse can do this, unless of course the two spouses get divorced.  Apparently, so long as the couple divorces more than two years before reaching “full retirement age”, both spouses can receive spousal benefits forever, even if they then remarry after age 70.  While nobody (at least nobody here) is suggesting that one should add an intentional divorce into your retirement plan, the article does mention the comparative potential of another set of spousal benefits vs. the cost of a quick, no-fault divorce.

This is not the only place where Social Security intervenes in people’s marital affairs.  Re-marriage is a fiendishly complicated question when it comes to Social Security spousal benefits.  Marrying a new spouse before the age of 60 costs you both your spousal and survivor benefits from your original spouse for the rest of your life.  Given how long people are living these days, this is not a minor issue (multiplying even modest monthly Social Security benefits by twenty five years yields a big number).  You can claim spousal benefits after only a year of marriage, but need to have been married ten years in order to continue claiming them post-divorce.

For these reasons, and so many others, we cannot stress enough how important it is to proceed with careful deliberation when deciding on your Social Security strategy.  There are countless tools to help you optimize Social Security (NewRetirement happens to have one right here), but no calculator, no matter how complicated, can possibly take every particular circumstance into account.  Independent research is really the only way to go when dealing with how you’re going to approach Social Security.  After all, not only are the ten rules that Mr. Solman cited important, but they should probably make you wonder about the other 2,718…

Learn about Social Security Benefits Optimization at NewRetirement.com

Resources for Maximizing your Social Security Benefits

How much stock to put in stocks?

Stock Certificate
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Back in March, the Wall Street Journal ran a cover story by NewRetirement Advisor Dr. Zvi Bodie, and Dr. Rachelle Taqqu, concerning the dangers of investing in stocks to build wealth for retirement.  The crux of the argument was that while the prevailing Wall Street wisdom is that stocks always outperform bonds over the long term (having done so in every thirty year period since 1861), the fact is that building your retirement plan around the stock market, whatever your diversification, is inherently risky, as the longer you hold stocks, the greater your chances of running into an inconvenient, if temporary, bear market, which if timed near the end of your retirement plan, can ruin decades of careful wealth management.  Anyone who was in the stock market around 2008 can certainly attest to that much, but the article has generated a great deal of discussion, with the Journal posting a follow-up piece containing readers’ objections to the authors’ thesis, and other sites such as Seeking Alpha posting their own thoughts on the endless debate as to what the perfect portfolio should really look like.

The key point to this debate (like everything to do with investment) is the proper calibration of risk vs. gain in one’s investment strategy.  Dr. Bodie and Taqqu aren’t claiming that stocks have no place in a portfolio, but that too many people employ them too freely, relying on old adages like “stocks always outperform bonds over the long term” (see above) instead of looking at what the actual risks of their investments are.  Their position is that most people underestimate the risks of stock ownership, and their suggested solution is additional investment in I-Bonds or TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), extremely low-risk securities indexed to the inflation rate, commonly used as a hedge against bear markets or as inflation protection for already-accumulated assets that need to retain their value for a long time.

Of course the flip side to this argument (as the follow-up articles point out) is that reducing risk has a corresponding effect on one’s ability to amass wealth, and that while removing stocks (or reducing them proportionately) in one’s portfolio will lower risk and reduce volatility, it will almost certainly also reduce the overall amount of money one ends up with.  TIPS and I-Bonds definitionally do not grow at all beyond the inflation rate, and other low-risk investments, such as standard bonds, have traditionally yielded less than stocks, especially over the short-medium term.  How then to make up the shortfall?  Remember, we are talking about retirement savings amassed over the course of decades.  A difference of a few percent in average yearly growth can make a massive difference in the endgame, and while “saving more” can help, most of us cannot easily increase our savings rate by 30%.

So what do you do?  Well obviously, there’s no one answer to that question (all three of the pieces above take pains to point that out), but one element that’s key to a lot of modern thinking on retirement is the idea of weighting risk relative to age.  Long-term retirement planners often advise people to take different thresholds of risk at different ages, investing more heavily in risky stocks early on, when the negative effects of risks can be more easily mitigated, and switching progressively to bonds or even TIPS later on, when a sudden downturn like the recent recession could be devastating without enough time to recover.

Of course none of this matters if you’ve already suffered major losses to your retirement plan, but that’s where other retirement planning tools come in handy.  As always, we suggest that you consider the services of a retirement financial advisor to determine what the best plan is for you.

 

Consider the advantages of a Retirement Financial Advisor

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A Series of Ask Bud Questions

This is a contribution from Bud Hebeler who runs Analyzenow.com

Q:  I am the high wage earner in our family, and I’ve already started my Social Security at age 62.  Is there any way I can get more.

A:  At your full-retirement-age (about 66), you can “Suspend” your Social Security and start again at as late as 70.  This will give you another 8% for each year of that delay.  So, when you started at 62, you got 75% of your full-retirement-age benefit.  By using suspend, you would get 32% more, so your age 70 benefit would be 75% x 1.32 = 99% of your full-retirement-age benefit.   If you would not have started at 62 and waited till 70, you would get 132% of your full-retirement-age benefit.  Hope this helps.

 

Q:  If I suspend my Social Security benefits at 66 to restart again later at a higher value, will my spouse’s benefit be changed?

A:  No, her benefits will continue through the suspension period.

 

Q:  I know that my fixed pension payments will be hurt by future inflation.  I can afford to save a little of it for the future to help out, but I don’t know how much?  10%, 30%, 50%???

A:  Yes, you can help protect yourself from moderate inflation, but it will be very difficult for very high inflation.  A simple formula is this for moderate inflation:  Spend only the after-tax amount multiplied by the amount of your age divided by 100.  So if your after-tax pension was $1,000 a month, and you were 70 years old, you would spend only $700 a month.  The other $300 you would save to cover future inflation.

A useful approximation that retirees can use is to determine how much of their investments they can withdraw for spending is to divide last year’s investment balance by the number of years the remaining investments must last.  So if you had $100,000 of investments and felt that it would be safe to exhaust investments in 20 years, then this year you could withdraw $100,000 divided by 20, or $5,000.

Both of these simple equations should allow you to almost cover inflation and yet give you about the same amount of purchasing power each year.

 

Q:  I have money in three different accounts, all taxed differently:  #1 Mutual funds not in any retirement account, #2 Funds in my IRA, and #3 some money in a Roth.  Which should I draw first in retirement?

A:  Most people do best if they withdraw taxable accounts first (your #1), deferred-tax accounts second (your #2), and tax-exempt accounts (your Roth) last.  However, you should always keep enough money in taxable accounts to cover this year’s spending plus an emergency reserve.  Another exception is when you must make Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from a qualified account such as your IRA after age 70 1/2.  Then spend the RMD first.  If that would be more than you need for your budget, save the rest of that RMD in a taxable account.  In actuality, most people will need to draw more than their RMD.  It is really important to have a retirement plan that you update every year to give you a basis for your budget.

 

Q:  My wife does not want to handle investments after I die.  She just wants to have deposits to her banking account which she can count on.  What do you recommend?

A:  First, make some kind of a guess what might be a reasonable amount to have on reserve for emergencies that would require a large cash payment without getting into debt.  Things to consider are health problems, children’s financial conditions, replacing expensive things like an automobile or roof, and the need for special care when very old.  Then consider putting the remainder in immediate annuities.  I would not do this all at once.  You might spread out the purchases over five or ten years.

Each year is likely to produce larger payments from a new immediate annuity both from the fact that the insurer will not have to make payments for as many years as you get older plus the fact that interest rates are likely to increase which will increase the amount of payments on a policy.

I have done this, but have also confined my purchases to inflation-adjusted immediate annuities.  These are harder to find, and the payments are less in the initial years, but I feel we are going to face a high inflation future.  If we go into a prolonged depression where prices actually drop, I have done the wrong thing selecting inflation-adjusted immediate annuities instead of fixed-payment ones.

 

Q:  I have just received a windfall cash payment.  How should I invest it?

A:  This is a more frequent question than you might expect though more people write to ask about what to do when they’ve lost some significant amount of money.  The first thing to do in either case, in my view, is to check your allocation of investments.  (There is a simple computer program on www.analyzenow.com that allows you do to this, or you can do it by hand.)  You want to know if you need more stocks or more fixed-income investments.

I use the rule that my nominal stock allocation should be a percentage equal to 100 minus my age.  So now at 79, my nominal stock allocation is 21%.  However, I do not take any rebalancing steps by selling or buying stocks unless the stock gets 5% more or 5% less than my nominal value.  In my case now, that’s 16% to 26% of my investments.  This formula has made me sell stocks when they are high and buy when low—just like you are supposed to do and not what most people end up doing.

I don’t recommend specific stock or bonds.  That is a choice that either you or a professional will make for you.  I personally prefer broad index funds for stocks like a low-cost S&P 500 index fund and individual issues for bonds (now mostly government bonds), but that may not be to your liking.  Incidentally, I do not count my pension or immediate annuity payments as part of my fixed-income investments.  I think that doing so is very misleading and leads to too heavy an investment in the stock market, particularly for the elderly.

Consider the advantages of a Retirement Financial Advisor

Find out more about the Risks to your Retirement

The Risks of Private Stock Offerings

A couple of weeks ago, the New York Times posted an opinion piece concerning the risks that investors face, now that advertisements for private stock offerings are once again legal.  In brief, federal securities law has been changed to enable venture capitalists, hedge funds, and start-ups of any sort to raise money more easily by appealing directly to certain classes of investors.  Theoretically, this measure is in place to enable small companies to raise money with greater ease, enabling capital to flow more easily from investors to investment projects.  But as always, removing regulation enables hucksters and rip-off artists to prey upon would-be investors.  And if history has taught us anything, it’s that whenever there’s a financial scam to be run, the primary victims will usually be seniors.

The article primarily concerns itself with which government agency or political party is to blame for this state of affairs, but the point we wish to emphasize is how this new situation will affect seniors and retirees.  According to the NCPEA (National Committee for the Prevention of Elder Abuse), two of the three groups most likely to target seniors for financial scams (after family members) are “Predatory individuals seeking vulnerable seniors” and “Unscrupulous professionals and businesses”, precisely the groups who will be circling in the aftermath of these new rules.  Seniors, or at least those above the age of fifty, control over 70% of the net worth of the United States after all, and seniors are more likely to have poor financial literacy, or disabilities that prevent them from keeping close track of their finances.

NewRetirement has always held that a Certified Financial Planner can help retirees with Estate Planning, Investments, and all manner of other subjects, and that such services are valuable not only for the wealthy, but for many middle-income retirees looking to stretch their investments over time.  But what’s not often talked about is the role of a reputable Financial Planner in ensuring that scams and stock-jobbers are stopped at the door.  Scammers are sophisticated, and their scams are designed to appeal to seniors who may be concerned about the rate of return of their current investments, or who simply want to improve their quality of life over the course of their retirement.  A Financial Planner can ensure that a retirees finances are always being checked for the unexpected withdrawals, new legal documents, and inter-account transfers that are the common warning signs of elder financial abuse, eliminating the need for family members to take on this daunting task.

Fee only certified Financial Advisors who have a fiduciary relationship with their clients are not for everybody, but faced with growing threat from scammers and confidence men looking to take advantage of vulnerable seniors, their value as a security gate for anyone who wishes to protect themselves is significant.

Consider the advantages of a Retirement Financial Advisor

Find out more about the Risks to your Retirement

Stop Sitting and Other Health News for Older Americans

According to numerous recent studies, sitting is going to reduce your life span!  In people who do a similar amount of physical activity, those who sit less will have a lower risk of dying compared to those who sit more.

Other recent health news:

  • Achy joints?  Eat this: Some research suggests that consuming the following foods could help alleviate osteoarthritis symptoms: strawberries, olive oil, salmon, green tea and leafy greens.
  • The eyes have it! In a recent study of Medicare beneficiaries, those who had cataracts removed were less likely to take a serious fall, experiencing 16 percent fewer hip fractures in the year after the operation.
  • Sleep! Getting good quality sleep can improve your overall health and a new study says it will help elderly people stay out of nursing homes.  If you have sleep problems, consult your doctor.
  • Spice it Up: Supplements containing a compound in curry spice may help prevent diabetes in people at high risk.\

RESOURCES:

 

 

New Resource for Optimizing Your 401k!

Most employers have probably given you a list of possible investments, but no advice on which ones are best for you and your retirement.  If you are frustrated by this approach, you may want to consider a service that can give you recommendations designed to optimize your investment returns while minimizing risks.

Smart401k is an easy to use solution to help you make the right investment decisions.  For a flat yearly fee they will tell you exactly how to invest your money now and help you rebalance your portfolio over time.

How Smart401k works:

1. Enroll online and pay a $199.95 yearly fee

2. Tell Smart401k about you and the investment options offered by your employer.

3. Receive an investment plan within a few days

4. Get periodic updates from Smart401k on how to shift or rebalance your account

RESOURCES:

 

 

Don’t Dismiss Reverse Mortgages!

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) recently released a purely negative report that degraded the use of reverse mortgages. However, there are actually many benefits of a reverse mortgage.

First off, in order to qualify for a reverse mortgage, you must own and reside in your home and be a senior 62 years of age or older. (In most cases second homes, apartment buildings and homes less than a year old are not eligible for a reverse mortgage.)

Reverse mortgages must be considered with all other options like selling the home, downsizing, or moving to an assisted living facility. These types of loans are long term decisions because  there are insurance fees and mortgage interest that gets added to the loan balance every month. So someone that plans on selling in 5 years will have less equity.

For anyone who chooses to participate in a reverse mortgage program, they can take their money in regular payments for a fixed term, a line of credit, or select some combination of these choices by receiving the entire amount in a lump sum.

These special types of loans might be good options for homeowners that still have a mortgage, credit card debt, or need to make necessary repairs to their home. And with any financial decision, it is important to talk with trusted financial advisors to help make your decision.

The bottom line is this: reverse mortgages may not work for everyone but dismissing the service completely might prove to doom many households to poverty in old age.

Visit newretirement.com for a number of free services:

 

 



Retirement? Not for these Olympians!

If you think you are too old for sports, think again!  There are a handful of inspiring individuals competing and even winning medals this Summer in London — Olympians who are in their 50s, 60s and 70s!!!

  • The oldest competitor in the 2012 Olympics is 71 year old Japanese equestrian Hiroshi Hoketsu. He is competing in dressage.
  • American Butch Johnson has competed in six Olympics. He is now 57 and will try to win a medal this year in archery.
  • Kiwi Mark Todd won a bronze medal this week in an equestrian event at the age of 56.
  • Ian Millar has competed in a record number of 10 Olympics! He is part of the Canadian equestrian team in London this year at the age of 65.
  • Oscar Swahn was the oldest Olympian ever.  He earned a silver medal at the age of 72 in a shooting competition at the Antwerp Games in 1920.

If shooting or horses are not your sport, maybe you’d like to try for a spot in the Senior Games – an Olympic like competition for people over 50.  There are numerous stories of people starting a new sport in their 50s and 60s and then thriving in competition!

 

RESOURCES:

 

 

Retirement Realities in a Stumbling Economy

With a downward spiraling economy, there are a few realities that you need to keep in mind and take into consideration in order to land a safe and successful retirement.

  • The first strategy is working in retirement. According to experts, 70 is the new 65, in retirement terms at least. Working in retirement will keep paychecks coming and hopefully provide you with  benefits such as health insurance and retirement account contributions. Finally, continuing to work may also provide you the ability to delay claiming your Social Security benefits – for each year up to 70, your increase by about 8%.
  • Another strategy that can be taken to plan for a successful retirement is the Social Security claiming strategy. As mentioned above, delaying your social security benefits will result in an 8% increase each year. It may also be possible for one spouse to begin drawing half of the other spouse’s Social Security benefits while still delaying his or her own claiming date (and thus enjoying those 8 percent annual benefit increases).
  • Taking a reverse mortgage could be they key to plan for a successful retirement. A Reverse Mortgage, or Reverse Home Mortgage, is a great financial product for seniors to use in their retirement plan.When looking for ways to get cash from their home, most people consider selling their house or borrowing against their home equity and making monthly loan repayments on a home equity loan. To be eligible for most Reverse Mortgages, you must own and reside in your home and be a senior 62 years of age or older. (In most cases second homes, apartment buildings and homes less than a year old are not eligible for a reverse mortgage.)
  • Spending retirement assets is another consideration to take into account when planning for retirement. The standard advice given by a financial adviser is not to spend more than 4% of your assets a year. However, in reality, whatever number makes sense to you needs to be accompanied by a strategy to actually manage your retirement assets to produce whatever level of payouts you’ve selected.

Resources:

Continue here to find a prescreened Reverse Mortgage lender

 

Use our free Newretirement Retirement Calculator to plan for a safe retirement

—–> https://www.newretirement.com/retirement-calculator/default.aspx

Use our free Reverse Mortgage Calculator to see how much you qualify for

—–> https://www.newretirement.com/Services/Reverse_Mortgage_Calculator.aspx

Use our free Social Security Calculator to find out when is the best time to take your benefits

—– >https://www.newretirement.com/Services/Social_Security_Start_Age_Calculator.aspx


Click here to be matched up with a financial advisor to help you plan for a safe retirement

 

 

The Decline of Stocks and Bonds

Pimco’s CEO, Bill Gross, claims that stock investors should think twice before applying the well established investing maxim of buying and holding into practice, “the cult of equity is dying”.

According to an article on The Wall Street Journal, Gross points out stocks have averaged a 6.6% annual gain on an inflation-adjusted scale for the past century. However, he believes that this rate of return is unlikely to be duplicated anytime soon due to a downward spiriling economy around the globe and goes on to say that the 6.6% return will not ever be duplicated without productivity and innovation that resembles that of Apple. In fact, the U.S. second-quarter GDP grew at a meager 1.5% rate, well below historical standards.

In addition to criticizing stock’s dismal return returns, Gross also chastises bonds, “What you see is what you get more often than not in the bond market, so momentum-following investors are bound to be disappointed if they look to the bond market’s past 30-year history for future salvation, instead of mere survival at the current level of interest rates.”

With lower expected returns for stocks and bonds, the average American is the big loser in this new investing environment. Investors seeking a cure that will solve the world’s problems shouldn’t hold their breath as policy makers in the past have tried to “inflate their way out of the corner.” However, people speculate that the Fed will commence on another bond buying program in order to stimulate the economy.

Bottom line for America: Cut your spending, up your savings, and reset the retirement planning tool ‘rate of return’ to about 1% a year.

Resources:

Use our free Newretirement Retirement Calculator to plan for a safer retirement

——–>  https://www.newretirement.com/retirement-calculator/default.aspx



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